Where Cities are Going, Next
In a recent 帖子, 我认为，发达城市日益复杂，需要在不同的城市基础设施之间进行协调，以确保运营效率和创造社会福祉. I also mentioned that new technologies – read: Big Data, Internet-of-Things, 智慧城市系统——不是“未来城市”的中心,’ but merely its enablers. But where are cities going with this?
回答这个问题的一个好方法不是通过新技术的镜头, but through understanding where cities have been in the past, where they are now and, given this track record, 后见之明和洞察力可以带来远见.
为了说明这个过程，我创建了如下所示的城市发展路线图. 它包括自1970年以来主导后工业城市话语的中心思想或“主题”，并有可能在未来几十年继续这样做. It shows, on a simplified timeline, how the basic components of cities – infrastructure, buildings, technology, and citizens – increasingly begin to overlap, interact, and build upon each other.
The Evolution of Cities Roadmap. Click here for larger image.
The first phase, called ‘The City of Bits and Pieces’延续了专业化的传统，这是20世纪90年代的标志th century economy. It focuses on individual components (bridges, 机场, hospitals, 学校, 交通信号)，并包括主要通过选举代表和公众会议的公民参与. 重点是尽可能高效地提供产品和服务, usually through silo-ed institutions, meeting basic needs and improving productivity.
The second phase, ‘The Increasingly Interconnected City,’ roughly corresponding to the city of today, begins to recognize that its pieces are interconnected, part of a complex whole. 它的重点是通过利用新兴技术的力量弥合孤岛之间的障碍, 例如工作场所协作平台和基于移动端的终端用户应用程序. 公众参与和投入越来越多地通过在线外联平台和众包数据进行，这些数据为更有效和个性化的服务提供信息.
城市在第一阶段和第二阶段的基本变化为第三阶段的面貌提供了强有力的线索. I’ve named it ‘The Responsive and Resilient City,因为在这里，最终用户与公共和私人服务提供商之间的联系必然会进一步加强. 重点将从过度集中的组织在统计上预测用户的总体需求(想想公共交通提供商)转移到用户自己实时协作，以满足特定时刻的特定需求(想想基于手机的汽车共享)。, increasing adaptability and resilience.
These changes go beyond cities. 它们反映了我们周围的世界是如何迅速变化的, based on a power shift towards the individual, enabled by the Internet age. What this user-centric, 以网络为基础的新世界对城市来说意味着他们是被迫的, by the expectations of its citizens, 对个人的需求做出更及时的反应, or, as John Hagel would put it, 更多的“pull than push.“ New Urban Mechanics 程序, 该公司最初在波士顿推出了一款报告涂鸦和坑洼的应用程序, is a good example of this.
While still many issues, 尤其是数据隐私和安全，以及日益扩大的数字鸿沟带来的不平等, need to be solved, as many experts have pointed out, 这种不断发展的城市概念有可能极大地改变人们体验和与实体城市互动的方式, with each other, and with service providers. Will it happen to the benefit of citizens? 对此尚无定论，但它肯定有这样做的潜力
Oliver Hartleben is a city planner 拥有哈佛大学肯尼迪学院公共管理学位，专注于现有和不断发展的公共服务, demographic, 流动性, built form, and innovation topics.
A lateral thinker by nature, Oliver brings together his experience in engaging public, 私营和社区利益相关者，以确定新的机会和协同作用. Oliver is NCI System-certified to facilitate design charettes, has experience in conducting online engagement processes, and leads IBI Group’s R&D Unit, TH!NK.
